Seismic Shifts in the Global Agri-Food R&D Landscape | News

Citation: Pardey, P.G., C. Chan-Kang, G-J. Stads, Y. Chai. J.M. Alston, J. Greyling, H. Muñoz. “Food Will be More Affordable — If We Double Funds for Agriculture Research Now.” Nature 648 (2025): 271-274, doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03970-0

Food prices are climbing globally, a trend often blamed on climate extremes and supply chain disruptions. But our recently released piece in Nature reveals a more fundamental, long-term threat: a significant slowdown in investment in agricultural science along with a shift in the global landscape for agricultural innovation. While the world’s population and demand for farm output continue to grow, the innovation processes required to sustain – let alone restore and accelerate – agricultural productivity growth and keep food plentiful are losing momentum. Between 2015 and 2021, the global growth rate of real (public and private) spending on agrifood R&D dropped by one-third compared with the previous three decades. The landscape of innovation is also shifting; spending is stagnating or shrinking in high-income nations like the United States while middle-income countries like China and India are taking the lead, and private sector spending has now surpassed public investment for the first time.

More detailed highlights:

Around half the world’s public and private agri-food R&D spending
- Now takes place in middle-income countries
- Occurs in the Asia & Pacific region
  - With China outspending the United States by more than $2 : $1
  - And India outspending the United States in terms of public R&D
- Is done by the private sector
Agri-food R&D spending is highly concentrated, geographically
- Just 10 countries account for almost 70% of the world’s public and private R&D total
- Three of the top 10 (China, India and Brazil) are middle-income countries
An ever-growing global agri-food R&D divide
- 1980 Low-income-countries /Rest-of-world = $7.5 / $100
  2021 Low-income-countries /Rest-of-world = $0.98 / $100
  (countries grouped according to their respective 1980 and 2021 per capita income status)
A big slowdown in inflation-adjusted agri-food R&D spending in recent years, spreading well beyond the high-income countries after 2015.
- In aggregate, since 2015, the rate of growth in global R&D spending fell by almost one-third
  Growth has slowed for half the world’s countries
- Almost one-third of all countries have reduced their real spending on agri-food R&D
  Slowdown is across the stage-of-development board (no longer just a rich country phenomenon)

Visualizations

NOTE: All currency units in constant 2020 purchasing power parity dollars. The images report total (public plus private) agri-food R&D spending (unless otherwise specified).

Seismic Shifts in the Global Agri-Food R&D Landscape, 1980-2021

This short video reveals the dramatic geographical shift in total (public and private) agri-food R&D spending worldwide from 1980 to 2021.

Global Total Agri-Food R&D Spending, 1980-2021

Stacked area chart of global agri-food R&D spending (1980–2021) in 2020 PPP$. Total spending tripled from $38B to $109.9B. High-income countries’ share fell from 65.4% to 48.5%, while middle-income countries (led by China’s post-2000 surge, plus India and Brazil) rose from 33.5% to a dominant 50.5%. Low-income countries remained a marginal 1% throughout. The chart visualizes middle-income nations overtaking high-income nations in global R&D investment share.

View a larger version of the Global Total Agri-Food R&D Spending chart, right click the image to download it

This stacked area chart shows that global agri-food R&D spending nearly tripled from $38 billion in 1980 to $109.9 billion in 2021, driven largely by a shift in investment from high-income to middle-income nations. By 2021, middle-income countries like China, India, and Brazil accounted for half the total global spending, surpassing the combined share of high-income economies like the United States.

The Rise of the Middle-Income, Large Agri-Food Economies, 1980-2021

Line chart of global agri-food R&D spending (1980–2021) in 2020 Purchasing Power Parity dollars. Brazil, India, and China (BIC) surged from ~$3B in 1980 to nearly $40B in 2021, surpassing the U.S. around 2008 and converging with "Other high income" countries by 2021. While BIC and middle-income groups show sharp growth since the 2000s, spending in low-income countries remains stagnant near zero. The chart illustrates a historic shift in R&D leadership toward major emerging economies.

View a larger version of The Rise of the Middle-Income, Large Agri-Food Economies chart, right click the image to download it

This line graph illustrates the rapid growth of agri-food R&D spending in Brazil, India, and China from 1980 to 2021, showing they surpassed spending by the United States around 2008 and matched that of the other high-income nations by 2015. While the middle-income group’s investment rose sharply to $55.5 billion, (inflation adjusted) spending for the United States grew little over the past four decades, and has begun to decline in recent years.

Agri-Food R&D Spending in the Low-Income Countries Lags Well Behind, 2021

Stacked bar chart shows middle-income countries lead with 50.2% of global agri-food R&D spending (led by China, India, and Brazil), followed by high-income countries at 48.8% (led by US and Japan). Low-income countries account for a negligible 1.0%, with only Ethiopia and "Other Low" visible via callouts. The chart highlights a stark funding gap between the world's wealthiest and poorest nations.

View a larger version of the Agri-Food R&D Spending in the Low-Income Countries Lags Well Behind chart, right click on the image to download it

This stacked bar chart illustrates the global distribution of agri-food R&D spending in 2021 across high, middle, and low-income countries. It highlights a significant disparity, showing that middle-income countries (50.5%) and high-income countries (48.5%) account for nearly the entire global total, while low-income countries represent only 1.0%.

Half the Agri-Food R&D Spending Occurs in Asia and Pacific, 2021

Pie chart showing global distribution of expenditures. Asia & Pacific dominates with 50% of total spending. Other major contributors include Europe & Central Asia (23%) and North America (14%). The remaining 13% is split between Latin America & the Caribbean (7%), Middle East & North Africa (3%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (3%). Three regions account for 87% of all global agri-food R&D investment.

View a larger version of the Half the Agri-Food R&D Spending Occurs in Asia and Pacific chart, right click on the image to download it

This pie chart illustrates that half of global agri-food R&D spending in 2021 occurred in the Asia & Pacific region, which accounts for 50% of the total. The remaining half is split among five other regions, led by Europe & Central Asia at 23% and North America at 14%.

Marked Shift Towards the Private Sector, 1980 vs. 2021

Two stacked bar charts showing a shift toward private and middle-income agri-food R&D from 1980 to 2021. The first chart shows the global private sector share grew from 32% to 49%, nearly equaling the public sector. The second chart shows that within private R&D, high-income countries' share dropped from 85% to 54%, while upper-middle-income countries' share rose from 11% to 42%. Shares for lower-middle and low-income countries remained stagnant and minimal.

View a larger version of the Market Shift Towards the Private Sector chart, right click on the image to download it

Agri-Food R&D Spending Growth Rates: Post- vs Pre-2015

World map comparing agri-food R&D spending growth rates post-2015 versus 1980–2015. A color scale shows changes from -20% (red) to +20% (green). Most major economies, including the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and China, are orange or light red, indicating a significant growth slowdown. Conversely, parts of Western Africa and Eastern Europe are green, showing accelerated R&D growth. Light grey areas indicate no data. The map highlights a global trend of decelerating R&D investment.

View a larger version of the Agri-Food R&D Spending Growth Rates Map, Right click on the image to download it

This map illustrates global changes in agri-food R&D spending growth rates, comparing the period after 2015 to the period before (1980-2015). It uses a color-coded scale to show that while some regions like parts of Eastern Europe and Africa have seen increased growth (green), many major economies including China, the U.S., and Brazil have experienced stagnant or slowing growth in agri-food R&D investment (red to orange and yellow).

This activity supported by: MnDRIVE Global Food Ventures, University of Minnesota